AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 843 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026 WHAT HAS CHANGED Added in a chance for sprinkles or very light showers this morning across north-central NY. Increased cloud cover through late morning as a band of clouds traverses the area from west to east. Increased temperatures by 1-2 degrees this afternoon, as it becomes sunny. Also bumped up winds and wind gusts across the area as soundings show deep boundary layer mixing up to 700mb, with average winds in this layer around 25 kts. KEY MESSAGES 1) Temperatures will trend warmer to start the week with increasing shower and thunderstorm chances Tuesday. 2) Slow moving frontal boundary pushes through mid-week with additional rounds of showers. 3)Another broad trough in place for the weekend bringing more cool and showery weather. DISCUSSION KEY MESSAGE 1 High pressure will continue to slide off the east coast today. This will result in an increase of southwesterly winds ahead of an approaching cold front. The front stays far enough west for one more dry day. With sunshine, temperatures should get well into the 60`s today and 70`s on Tuesday. The increased moisture coupled with the lift from the approaching cold front looks sufficient to develop some scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and night. Modeled and ensemble guidance does show indications for some modest 0-6KM shear of 30-40 knots and about 500 J/KG CAPE. If the NAM model soundings pan out some gusty winds may be realized with any thunderstorms. Both this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon look rather gusty with inverted V soundings showing up. KEY MESSAGE 2 Exact timing of the frontal passage Tuesday night into Thursday is still somewhat uncertain leading to lower confidence on Wednesday`s temperatures. Precipitation looks to become more stratiform as low pressure brings a more widespread rainfall Wednesday. Total rainfall for the two day period looks to be around an inch, not sufficient for a flood threat at this time. The front potentially is still close enough for additional showers on Thursday with a cooling trend starting. KEY MESSAGE 3 Conditional conditions for frost once again Friday morning if clearing can occur. Attention then turns to the development of a broad trough of low pressure returning cooler and showery conditions this weekend. AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/ VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. LLWS is possible through early this morning at central NY terminals until winds start mixing down to the surface. Outlook: Tuesday...Scattered showers starting in the late afternoon with restrictions possible under heavier rain. Wednesday and Thursday...Restrictions possible from rain showers and thunderstorms. Friday...Lingering chances for showers and restrictions. BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES PA...None. NY...None.